Category Archives: Iran

Confidence, Humility, and Pragmatism on the International Stage

Consider this exchange between Fox News’ Major Garrett and President Obama last week in Russia:  

GARRETT: “In your speech this morning, you said the Cold War reached its conclusion because of the actions of many nations over many years. Mr. President, are the Russian sensitivities so fragile that you can’t say the Cold War was won, the West won it, and it was led by a combination of Democratic and Republican American presidents?”

President Obama: “Well, listen, the — I think that you just cut out Lech Walesa and the Poles. You just cut out Havel and the Czechs. There were a whole bunch of people throughout Eastern Europe who showed enormous courage. And I think that it is very important in this part of the world to acknowledge the degree to which people struggled for their own freedom. I’m very proud of the traditions of Democratic and Republican presidents to lift the Iron Curtain. But, you know, we don’t have to diminish other people in order to recognize our role in that history” (my emphasis).

Mr. Garrett’s question reflects the counterproductive worldview characterized by insecurity and American narcissism that has been embraced by Obama’s critics.  The president’s answer, on the other hand, exemplifies a uniquely American confidence that we can guide the “arc of history” in favor of our national interests if only we apply a restrained and pragmatic touch to events as they unfold.

Garrett wants to craft an image of Obama as soft on our adversaries – too politically correct to speak the truth about the US’s role in history and by extension, too gun-shy to exert our influence on current events.  (Never mind that Media Matters caught Garrett’s friend Sean Hannity selectively cropping video footage of this exchange to omit Obama’s mention of the Poles, the Czechs, and U.S. presidents). 

 The president points out some of the historical realities that Garrett chooses to ignore, but chooses not to lead Garrett by the hand to the broader point, which is: What foreign policy objective is served by withholding credit from the millions of eastern Europeans who daringly – and peacefully – took down communist regimes? Regardless of whether the Russian “sensitivities” are “fragile,” it has not occurred to Garrett that the president’s priority is to cultivate a constructive relationship with one of the largest, most powerful countries in the world.  And that the president’s carefully-chosen tone might be a more productive way to advance our national interests than making needless jabs at Russia’s sensitivities.

Did the West win the Cold War, in part due to the policies of US presidents (particularly Reagan’s arms build-up that hastened the inevitable economic collapse of the USSR?)  Of course.  But to dismiss the sacrifices of the people of the eastern bloc, not to mention the political courage and historical foresight of Mikhail Gorbachev, the roles of Margaret Thatcher, Pope John Paul II, countless dissidents and demonstrators, etc., is to willingly adopt a bizarrely myopic understanding of history.  For what? To inflate the sense of American narcissism felt by Fox News viewers?  One can practically hear the devotees of Sean Hannity chanting “We’re number one!!” in the back of Garrett’s head.

As we’ve covered in this blog, this president has resisted the knee-jerk, neo-con impulses to interfere in Iran and appreciates (as any experienced community organizer does) that the forces of freedom, democracy, are social change ultimately must come from the people within a society.  To be sure, these events can be influenced by active American policy under certain circumstances, but only when our credibility and legitimacy are intact – and when our strategy reflects the realities of the situation.  In the case of the recent unrest in Iran, the realities of Iranian history and its political landscape required the U.S. to resist an overt declaration of solidarity with the reformers.  And ironically, the ham-handed nature of our meddling in Middle Eastern affairs under the Bush Administration has made it more difficult to nudge events in our direction even if we tried.

Sadly, it used to be the GOP that was known for projecting confidence on issues of foreign policy and took a tough, but ultimately pragmatic and restrained approach to policy.  This restraint was indicative of a broader conservative philosophy characterized by a healthy level of skepticism about our ability to actively build democracies from scratch and create nations in our image.  

Fred Kaplan offers George H.W. Bush as a prime example of this hard-headed – and effective – restraint in the face of considerable domestic pressure to intervene in pro-democracy movements in Eastern Europe at the end of the Cold War.  He cites Bush’s memoirs, A World Transformed co-authored with his national security advisor Brent Scowcroft:

Bush recalled that he felt it important to “step carefully in Poland and Hungary and … avoid aggravating the Soviets, whose military presence still loomed there.” If the U.S. had taken overt action to encourage democracy, he explained, “I understood that the pressure on Gorbachev from hard-liners to intervene would grow…there could be more Tiananmens.”

In other words, he recognized that Ronald Reagan’s aggressive policies had set history in Eastern Europe in motion, and that it was now his own task to slow it down – to allow liberal change to settle in with minimal bloodshed.

The ability to put pragmatism over ideology and defy our worst clumsy but well-intentioned instincts will be critical in Afghanistan as the United States, its NATO allies, and the Afghan government collectively find a way forward.  In their article titled “Flipping the Taliban” in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, Fotini Christia and Michael Semple describe a key piece of our strategy in Afghanistan as a “political surge,” or a “committed effort to persuade large groups of Taliban fighters to put down their arms and give up the fight.”  Part of the basis for this approach lies in a unique and long-established aspect of “the Afghan way of war” in which the desire to simply be on the winning side is a primary motivator of Afghan fighters, prompting them to continuously “realign” or change sides in mid-conflict.  But more fundamentally, Christia and Semple write that our willing to adopt a reconciliation strategy comes in part from what we learned from our failures and successes Iraq: “no occupying power can hope to quash an insurgency by killing and capturing its way to victory. It must make friends, especially among its enemies” (my emphasis).

Needless to say, a concerted effort to negotiate or reconcile with insurgents or Taliban fighters sounds distasteful, and will be easy for critics to mischaracterize in order to score political points.  Similarly, last week’s news that the U.S. might be open to talks with the Taliban will likely generate some misinformed commentary from the cable news outlets and the blogosphere.  These issues represent an early test of how Obama’s foreign policy approach will be put in practice and how the public will receive it.

We saw how dumbing down foreign policy translated into domestic political success during the (W., not H.W.) Bush years.  But we also saw during those years how tough talk and inflammatory rhetoric revealed our worste insecurities and poorly served our national interests. 

I took to writing this post after seeing Michelle Obama dressed in a long black veil in the Catholic tradition during a visit with Pope Benedict and hearing the president publicly refer to the Pope as the “Holy Father” during the week leading up to the visit.  While the foreign policy implications were small and it stirred no domestic controversy, many commentators cited these things and noted that American Catholics appreciate these gestures.  A more controversial gesture – Obama’s “bow” to the Saudi King – did stir the headlines, but this too struck me as a simple gesture of respect.

Hopefully, people begin to see these minor things as well Obama’s broader international strategies for what they are: a projection of supreme confidence in himself and the country he leads.  And in the long run, they reflect a foreign policy posture that will best serve our national security interests.

-MN

Handling Iran

Robert Kaplan applauds Obama’s handling of Iran:

History has been set in motion in Iran. Though only dozens have been killed so far, the possibility of hundreds or more dying in a bloody upheaval is not out of the question. One ayatollah has even called for executions. Obama’s goal must be political change and liberation in Teheran with minimal bloodshed. And he simply cannot accomplish that by putting America’s fingerprints all over the democracy movement there. How he handles this could mean the difference between a massive crackdown by a terror-promoting, radical regime (who would likely retain complete control for years to come), and a gradual behind-the-scenes transformation, as the clerisy moves delicately away from the “Death to America” mantra of previous decades. In that regard, like the elder Bush vis-à-vis Eastern Europe, the less Obama says about Iran these days the better. It’s not about winning an argument, as some commentators appear to believe; it’s about effecting change, indirectly, in a complex society half-a-world away.

- MN

Neocons Continue to Baffle

Robert Kagan wrote a really poor op-ed this morning int he Washington Post:

What Obama needs is a rapid return to peace and quiet in Iran, not continued ferment. His goal must be to deflate the opposition, not to encourage it. And that, by and large, is what he has been doing.

Matt Duss at ThinkProgress nails him.

How then to explain his State Department reaching out to Twitter and asking them to delay their scheduled maintenance, in order to allow the continued use of this technology that has proven so important to enabling communication within and out of Iran? That one gesture neatly encapsulates, I think, the difference between Bush and Obama on “democracy promotion.” Bush believed in America bringing the gift of freedom to the people of the world. Obama believes in practical steps to put the tools of freedom in the hands of the people themselves, and then creating the space for people to use those tools.

Just to be clear, most of us who “railed against the Bush administration’s ‘freedom agenda’” did so not out of any hostility toward freedom or democracy, but out of the belief, now completely vindicated, that strong, stirring words in favor of democracy mattered little if the policies behind them were counterproductive to the actual cause of democracy, as Bush’s policies were. By backing pro-democracy rhetoric with American war and occupation, President Bush and his conservative supporters cast the cause of freedom and democracy into disrepute, from which it must now be rescued and reclaimed by more responsible hands.

-MN

Why We Needed a Smart President

I will not try to keep up with the furious and important blogging being done today by thousands of people across the globe on the uprising in Iran (though I recommend starting with Andrew Sullivan for terrific coverage). But the question of how the US (i.e., Obama) ought to handle this in the near term is a crucial one.
House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va) issued this statement today:

“The Administration’s silence in the face of Iran’s brutal suppression of democratic rights represents a step backwards for homegrown democracy in the Middle East. President Obama must take a strong public position in the face of violence and human rights abuses. We have a moral responsibility to lead the world in opposition to Iran’s extreme response to peaceful protests.”

Cantor is not alone. Others have been eager to criticize Obama for any reason they can come across. But Obama’s brief statement today was probably the perfect pitch. As many thoughful people have said in recent days, the regime is waiting for a heavy-handed statement from the US in order to portray the demonstrators as agents of a foreign enemy. Clumsily playing into their hands is something our last president turned into a science. This president seems to be avoiding that mistake.
It is amazing to me that the American Right can bash Obama for a two-year campaign calling for openness and diplomacy with Iran and then criticize his recent Cairo speech when these things played a critical role in cultivating the movement that supported Mousavi. Now they call for Obama to speak out just when such a statement would undercut the very positive uprising we are now witnessing.

-MN

Nuclear Iran

After Jeffrey Goldberg’s much-covered interview with Benjamin Netanyahu in which Israel’s new prime minister suggests that if the U.S. doesn’t prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear capability, then Israel may be forced to attack, Ross Douthat posts some good thinking and multiple points of view on the issue of nuclear deterrence. He is not quick to accept that a stability and avoidance of a nuclear exchange borne out of the concept of mutually assured destruction can prevail as it did in the Cold War.

An Iranian bomb wouldn’t be a new thing under the sun. But it would be a significant risk-multiplier – and so would the nuclearizations that would likely follow in the region… I think we need to be clear-eyed about what a Mesopotamian balance of terror is likely to mean for U.S. policy in the region. Saying that we can live with a nuclear-armed Iran is the beginning of managing the problem, not the end of it. Deterrence proposed is easier than deterrence implemented.

James Fallows on the other hand, declares the idea of an attack on Iran as foolish and self-defeating.

- MN